中亞鐵路運輸通道安全韌性研究：現狀和展望
孫繼濤

摘要：
運輸通道的安全韌性與其網絡結構類型關係密切，主要包括兩個重要指標：一是基礎設施的連通性，二是運輸通道上關鍵節點分佈的合理性。連通性分析包括境內基礎設施情況、過境點數量及其分佈、運輸通道的可替代性等；關鍵節點分析包括交付量集中程度、對通道的依賴程度等。中亞各國在鐵路基礎設施連通性和通道關鍵節點方面的發展並不平衡，這對該地區鐵路運輸通道的可靠性造成不利影響。隨着中、俄、歐等外部力量參與中亞運輸通道建設，可能會改變其鐵路運輸發展格局，進而影響通道安全韌性。

關鍵詞：
中亞 鐵路運輸通道 連通性 運輸關鍵節點 安全韌性

The Resilience Stud y of Railway Transport Corridorsin Central Asia : Current Situation and Prospects
Sun Jitao

Abstract：
The resilience of transport corridor is closely related to its network types, which are influenced by two main indicators. One is the connectivity of transport infrastructure, and the other is the distribution of key links and nodes on transport corridors. The former analyzes the performance of infrastructure, the number of border-crossing points and their distributions, the substitutability of transport corridors, etc. The latter analyzes the degree of delivery concentration, the dependence on transport corridors, etc. For Central Asian countries have uneven development of railway infrastructure connectivity and transport nodes, it brings negative influence on the reliability of transport corridors in this region. With the participation of neighbouring powers, like China, Russia and EU in building the transport corridors in Central Asia, the original structure of rail network pattern may be changed, so is the resilience of relevant corridors.

Key words：
Central Asia Railway Transport Corridor Connectivity Key Transportation Node Resilience

DOI：
https://doi.org/10.63334/esfsmjournal.i8.2025.09.05